AfD ahead of SPD, CDU below five percent

The AfD is ahead in the election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - the ruling SPD is just behind. The situation is dramatic for the CDU, which could fly out of a state parliament for the first time. The Greens will probably make it, the BSW will probably not. The AfD won the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern just ahead of the SPD.

The current ARD projection sees the AfD with 38.3 percent ahead of the SPD, which comes to 35.4 percent and is thus no longer the strongest party for the first time in 28 years. The AfD can thus more than double its 2021 result and achieve its best result to date in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. During the election campaign, she was largely moderate, promised improvements and relief, and is likely to have benefited from the massive dissatisfaction with the federal government. But a clear electoral victory with a clear lead over other parties, such as last two weeks ago in Saxony-Anhalt, is missed by the Northeast AfD around "prime minister candidate" Leif-Erik Holm and top candidate Enrico Schult.

Nevertheless, Holm saw the government's mandate with the AfD. All parties will be invited to talks, he said in front of supporters in Schwerin. SPD relies entirely on Schwesig The SPD performs surprisingly well at 35.4 percent. Although the Social Democrats have to accept losses and can no longer come close to the almost 40 percent of 2021, they are greatly relieved: in recent months, they have been able to catch up with the AfD, which is clearly lagging behind in surveys.

"What a catch-up," Schwesig said in a first reaction in the evening. In front of cheering supporters, she spoke of a "very difficult state election" and a "team effort". The SPD relied entirely on the Schwesig party, which had been in power since 2017 and scored points with an official bonus and high approval ratings in the country - and presented itself as a bulwark against the AfD, especially since the Saxony-Anhalt election. She distanced herself from the Federal SPD and the course of the Federal Government, for example with regard to pension reform plans.

Because of the high fuel prices - a central issue in the election campaign - she called for rapid relief for motorists. A demand that the federal government met with a tank discount and fuel price cap shortly before the election. CDU under the five-percent mark The CDU is experiencing a fiasco and is plunging into one-sidedness. The ARD projection puts the party at 4.9 percent.

This would mean that the CDU would no longer be represented in the state parliament. In the history of the Federal Republic, the CDU has never failed in state elections due to the five percent hurdle that ensures entry into parliament. It was a difficult election campaign for the Northeast CDU. She not only had to fight against the negative federal trend and the widespread anti-mercury sentiment, but also suffered from the escalation of the election campaign to the duel Schwesig against the AfD.

His own top candidate - Daniel Peters - remained unknown to many people. Looking at the five-percent mark, Peters spoke of a “fight for survival.” He again rejected coalitions involving the AfD or the Left Party for the CDU, should the Christian Democrats even move into the new state parliament. Left-wingers with losses At 6.5 percent, the left-wing performs worse than in 2021, when it came to 9.9 percent.

The election campaign between the SPD and the AfD also made it difficult for the left to convince voters. The Left Party recently ruled with the SPD in a red-red coalition, which it would also like to continue. Minister of Education and Deputy Prime Minister Simone Oldenburg was also a top candidate. Greens over five percent The Greens also have to accept losses, but will probably make it back into parliament.

According to the ARD projection, they are at 5.7 percent. During the election campaign, they had also relied on tactical second votes from the left-wing camp and campaigned for a red-red-green state government. The party around top candidate Claudia Müller could now become important for the future formation of a government in Schwerin. The FDP clearly missed its return to parliament with 1.0 percent.

The BSW probably won't make it either, it is currently at 4.8 percent. In the event of entry into parliament, Spitzenkandidat Peter Schabbel ruled out a coalition with the AfD. He campaigned for a bipartisan prime minister. What does this mean for government formation?

For the first time in 28 years, the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is not the strongest force, but is being overtaken by the AfD. However, the AfD has failed to achieve the goal of a single government. At least 71 seats must be allocated in the Schwerin state parliament. An absolute majority in the Landtag requires at least 50 percent of the votes of the parties recruited to parliament.

The AfD would therefore have to find a coalition partner to govern, or at least obtain the acquiescence of another party. However, all other parties have officially excluded this. It is not enough for a continuation of Red-Red. If the Greens actually make it into the state parliament, Schwesig could try to forge a red-red-green coalition.

But whether it would be enough for this tripartite alliance also depends on whether the CDU and BSW make it into the state parliament. Minority governments such as those in Thuringia and Saxony would also be conceivable. What does this mean for the Federal Government and Chancellor Merz? The election is much more than a decision of direction for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and its almost 1.6 million inhabitants.

Much also depends on the outcome of the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the parallel vote in Berlin for the black-red federal government and in particular Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Two weeks after Saxony-Anhalt, nervousness is high, especially at the CDU, and criticism of Merz is massive. Speculation and even the exchange of chancellors recently made the rounds. It is unlikely that the CDU will calm down in the face of this electoral debauchery.

Merz wants to continue Merz appeared in front of the press shortly after 6 p.m. Despite the poor results of the CDU in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, he wanted to remain in office and continue on the course of reform. "I want to move our country forward," said the CDU leader. "The reforms must come." The SPD is also not an anchor of stability in the federal government, but the Schwesig success should first of all provide relief.

Schwesig's influence in Berlin is expected to continue to increase, and she is already being traded as SPD leader and/or chancellor candidate.