The TV duel Schwesig versus Holm: Our fact check

On Sunday, elections are held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. According to polls, the current Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and Leif-Erik Holm (AfD) have the best chance of leading a new state government. Tonight they met on NDR television. We accompany the TV duel in this blog with our fact check.

Topic: Bureaucracy in companies Holm talks about the bureaucracy burden in companies, which is said to have increased in recent years. More than three quarters of companies complain about too much bureaucracy that it has increased in the last five years. Our assessment: Leif-Erik Holm quotes mostly correctly from a nationwide company survey conducted by the Institute of German Business. In March 2026, the Institute of German Economy (IW) published the results of a company survey, which was carried out in a representative manner and in the autumn of 2025 at more than 1,000 companies nationwide.

Accordingly, around 80 percent reported an "increased effort for the fulfilment of statutory reporting and documentation obligations in the past three years". Most companies cited less extensive EU regulations as the most important approach to reducing bureaucracy, followed by centrally organised, digital administration. Topic: Finance and Budget Leif-Erik Holm comments on the country's expected budget deficit and the fiscal policy pursued by the AfD. Unfortunately, not much more is possible at the moment, because Ms Schwesig has run down the budget to such an extent that we will have a deficit of one billion in 2028.

So we are deliberately cautious about these things because we want to do solid business. And we have to save first, also in the household, in order to create the conditions. Our assessment: The statement is imprecise and the conclusion cannot be accurately verified. It is true that the State Audit Office warns of a budget deficit.

However, the figure of one billion euros for 2028 is not clear from the information. In the election campaign so far, there has been talk of a "billion-dollar hole" and a deficit of one billion euros. Candidates from other parties, such as Daniel Peters (CDU), also use these terms. Presumably, they refer to the annual report 2026 of the State Audit Office.

It states that from 2028 onwards, a budget balance will no longer be feasible. Taken together, there is a gap of three billion euros for the years 2028, 2029 and 2030. The country's Ministry of Finance also plans to borrow around 0.3 billion euros net in each of the years 2026 and 2027. Topic: Teacher Schwesig gives figures on new hires of teachers and demand in the next few years.

And that's why we've hired 4,300 new teachers in recent years and need 3,500 new ones in the next few years because many are retiring. Our assessment: The figures largely correspond to the current information provided by the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Ministry of Education. According to the Ministry of Education in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a total of 4,327 teachers were hired in public schools from 2021 to 2025 (as of April 2026). In August, the Ministry of Education announced that about 3,600 teachers would have to be hired over the next five years.

Of these, the country educates about 2,700 itself. Already in 2021, the country had published a forecast of teacher needs until 2035, in which the high demand was justified by the fact that many teachers are retiring. Topic: Deportations Holm comments on deportations in the first half of 2026, which he considers insufficient. Ms Schwesig did not solve the problem.

79 deportations in the first half of the year, that is not possible. Our assessment: The statement that a total of 79 people were deported from MV in the first half of 2026 is correct. Leif Erik Holm asked the Federal Government in the summer of 2026 in a small request for the number of deportations in the first half of 2026 (until 30.06.26). He also wanted to know how many of them came from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The Federal Government replied: "In the period from 1 January 2026 to 30 June 2026, a total of 18,939 people were repatriated from Germany via deportations and sponsored departures. According to the knowledge of the Federal Government, in the period from 1

January 2026 to June 30, 2026, 9,663 people were deported. Of these, 79 were initiated by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the period in question." Subject: The NDR Broadcasting Council Ms. Schwesig has sent two active state politicians to the NDR Broadcasting Council. And I don't think it's right for active politicians to sit on the supervisory board of public service broadcasting.

Tautz: "The AfD itself was represented in the Broadcasting Council." Holm: "But not by an active politician."Tautz: "With a member of the state parliament.“ Holm: “No, never." Our assessment: The NDR State Treaty allows active politicians to be sent to the Broadcasting Council. With Nadine Julitz and Thomas Krüger, two SPD members of the Schwerin Landtag are currently on the Broadcasting Council. The AfD was also represented with Romy Schult in the NDR Broadcasting Council. Contrary to Holm's assertion, Schult was active as a politician during this time - among other things, as a member of the Mecklenburg Lake District Council.

The NDR Broadcasting Council represents the interests of all citizens in the broadcasting area of the NDR. It is also composed in this way: the 58 members of the Broadcasting Council reflect the breadth of social life in northern Germany: culture, business, politics, sports, churches, migrants and many other organisations voluntarily send their members to the NDR Broadcasting Council. The NDR State Treaty specifies which organisations these are. This diverse body monitors compliance with program requirements and advises the Intendant on general program matters.

Up to eleven members are sent by parties according to their parliamentary group size, which are represented by parliamentary groups in the state parliaments of Hamburg (2), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Lower Saxony (3) and Schleswig-Holstein (2). The NDR State Treaty also provides for two equalisation seats. With Nadine Julitz and Thomas Krüger, two SPD members of the Schwerin Landtag are currently on the Broadcasting Council. The AfD was also represented in the NDR Broadcasting Council.

In 2017, the AfD sent Romy Schult to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a member (until 30.9.2020). After the 2016 state election, the AfD was the second strongest faction in the Schwerin state parliament and received one of these seats. The other went to the SPD. Romy Schult was not - as initially said in the live broadcast - in the state parliament, but was active for the AfD in the district council of the Mecklenburg Lake District from May 2019 to September 2020.

Parties can send politicians, but also "outsiders". Discussion on public broadcasting The live broadcast also dealt with the positions of the two leading candidates on public broadcasting. Holm accused the NDR of disinformation, among other things. Our fact check is running...

Topic: Medical care in the countryside Manuela Schwesig explains the extended program of the state government to ensure medical care in rural regions. That is why we have introduced the country doctor quota (...) Also for other specialists. Our assessment: It is correct that the rural doctor quota was extended this year. But only in one specialty: dentistry.

Schwesig's government introduced a rural doctor quota in 2020. This regulation reserves a certain number of medical study places for applicants: in return, they must undertake to work for at least ten years as a family doctor or paediatrician in an underserved or potentially underserved area in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. At the beginning of 2026, the law was renewed and now also includes study places for dentistry. Topic: School dropout rate The top candidates give different numbers of early school leavers in MV.

In the future, we really want to have the best-educated school leavers, not ten percent without a degree, as is the case now. It's simply not true that one-third of students in the country fall through the baccalaureate exam. (...) The failure rate is much, much lower, at seven percent. You just said: one third.

And that's not true. Our assessment: Holm's statement of ten percent is only partially correct because it does not take information into account. Schwesig's figure is roughly based on the current number of school leavers without any school leaving certificate in MV, but is not the same as the actual "failure rate". However, the third of the pupils who pass the Abi examination did not refer to the country, as Schwesig said, but to the grammar school in Hagenow.

In the 2024/25 school year, 14,616 young people completed general education in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The Statistical Office distinguishes between "without professional maturity" and "without a degree". 1,516 pupils had no professional maturity. This corresponds to 10.4 percent and thus actually about every tenth.

However, 607 of these 1,516 pupils had completed special education. Without any degree, 909 young people left school. This corresponds to around 6.2 percent of all school leavers. Approximately one in ten school leavers left school in 2024/25 without professional maturity, but not without any degree.

In fact, around 6.2 percent left school without any degree. Topic: Nuclear power plants Schwesig comments on the AfD's plans for nuclear power and how much green electricity the country is currently producing. But everyone knows that what Mr Holm is proposing will soon be neither politically nor technically feasible. But what Mr Holm and the AfD actually want is to build nuclear power plants in their own federal state.

And I want to say it here: We already produce twice as much green electricity as we consume ourselves. Our assessment: Basically, Manuela Schwesig is right: The AfD demands in its election program to reactivate old reactors and to check locations for new buildings in MV. Her comment on electricity production is also broadly correct. Legislative changes at the federal level would be necessary both for the recommissioning and for the construction of new nuclear power plants.

According to an analysis by the Fraunhofer Institute from 2024, nuclear power plants that have not yet been dismantled too far could theoretically be reactivated, but this would involve considerable costs and time. As early as 2023, the Federal Government pointed out that the licences for the old power plants had expired and would have to be reassigned. For this, the power plants would have to prove that they correspond to the latest state of "science and technology". Since this has evolved, "this verification (...) does not seem technically possible".

The operating companies of the former nuclear power plant are also against a re-entry. Nevertheless, the AfD Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in its election programme calls for decommissioned power plants to be put back into operation "as soon as possible". It also states: "As part of a feasibility study, we want to examine which locations and technologies are suitable for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the long term." In fact, around three times more electricity is generated from renewable energies in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern than the country consumes. Topic: Wind energy Manuela Schwesig talks about how the AfD would deal with the topic of wind power.

The AfD says its party leader says: dismantle wind power again. But we are benefiting from it right now. Our assessment: It is true that Alice Weidel said that she wanted to demolish all wind power plants. The AfD leader Alice Weidel attended the party congress of the AfD in Riesa, Saxony, on 11

January 2025 on stage: "We are tearing down all wind power plants! Down with those windmills of shame." The TV duel is over - here we go on. The exchange between Manuela Schwesig and Leif-Erik Holm on NDR television is over. We will continue our fact check here in the blog. Topic: Nord Stream 2 Holm talks about the use of gas from Nord Stream 2.

We also want to use the gas from Nord Stream because it is unrivalled cheap gas. And as soon as the terrible war in Ukraine is over and we have normal relations with Russia again, we want to put the pipeline back in motion. Our fact check is underway... Topic: Free daycare support AfD candidate Holm comments on the party's position on free daycare places.

Of course, they bring this fairy tale over and over again. Of course, we have always been in favour of the free daycare. Our assessment: The AfD is in favour of the non-contributory daycare centre in its current election programme, but the party has also doubted the implementation and basic idea of non-contributory daycare centres in the past. The AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is not against the non-contributory daycare centre, but is in favour of it.

Their election programme states: "We stand by the non-contributory daycare centre as an important family relief." However, the AfD demands that the freedom to contribute does not come at the expense of the quality of care. Whether the AfD in MV has actually "always" spoken out in favour of the non-contributory daycare centre, as Holm says, cannot be conclusively checked. In the programme for the 2021 state election, for example, the AfD only writes about "a monthly subsidised daycare place or an education allowance". In an older article, the AfD described the non-contributory daycare centre as "increasingly questionable and unreasonable".

In the current election programme, the party writes about itself that it has been campaigning for free daycare places since 2016. Topic: Teacher training and dropout rate Leif-Erik Holm and Manuela Schwesig talk about teacher training and dropout rate among teacher training students. We must, of course, address teacher training in the long term. It doesn't work very well.

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