Analysis of the election: Why the Left was so successful in Berlin

The Left Party won thanks to an age group in Berlin and put it on the right topic, according to surveys. For the AfD, many things are different there than in other federal states. And all parties had quite unknown candidates. By Holger Schwesinger What is considered decisive for the election in Berlin depends strongly on party preference.

For CDU voters, the economy was the most important topic this time, in the SPD camp it was social security, in the Left Party housing, in the Green Party transport and in the AfD immigration. For the success of a party, it was important how much it succeeded in convincing its clientele of its concept on this top topic. The Left Party is betting on the right topic The Left Party also focused on housing during the election campaign - which is likely to have played a major role in winning the election with such a clear lead over the CDU. 37 percent of people in Berlin believe the Left Party has the best solutions here - far more than any other party.

And this despite the fact that the concepts of the left in housing policy are extremely controversial. The majority is against expropriations There are very different ideas on the subject, the opposites of which are the CDU and the Left: the CDU wants to promote new construction through various measures, which requires financially strong investors. The Left Party wants to expropriate large housing corporations, for which Berlin would have to go into massive debt. In principle, there is more support than rejection from all political camps for the concept of strengthening the new building.

The model of expropriation favoured by the left is different. Around three quarters of left-wing supporters think this is good, but rejection predominates for all other parties - as well as for the population as a whole. However, the Left's concept also corresponds to the demand for a referendum, in which a good 59 percent voted in 2021 to socialize real estate companies with more than 3,000 apartments against compensation. By far the strongest force among young people The average age of the Berlin population is very young compared to other federal states - and for the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds were also allowed to vote in the general election.

And thanks to the young voters, the left has also been able to double its election result. Compared to 2023, it has increased in all age groups - but particularly clearly in those under 35. The left has clearly become the "young big city party", which is impressively shown by the comparison to the state election held in parallel in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. There, the left is also winning with young voter groups.

Only Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is largely structured in a very rural way - and only a few young people live in the countryside. While she wins the election in Berlin, she is one of the losers in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Even when it comes to the economy, many rely on the left In Berlin, however, the left can score points not only with its housing policy, but with a wide range of topics. In terms of competency attribution, it is increasing significantly in many areas compared to 2023 - even when it comes to the economy.

Above all other parties, it is the "meta-question" of who can best solve the problems in Berlin: 20 percent say the left. The CDU follows in second place with 15 percent. Many see an anti-Semitism problem The Left has a massive anti-Semitism problem from the point of view of many voters in Berlin. Above all, the Neukölln district association has repeatedly made anti-Israel statements.

In certain voter groups, this may have brought votes, but overall it may have cost more. Around half of eligible voters say that the left in Berlin gives too much space to anti-Semitic positions. Among them are many supporters of the SPD and the Greens, who would basically be an interesting clientele for the left. Candidates did not play a major role in any party. The fact that top candidate Elif Eralp distanced herself from anti-Semitism does little to change this.

This may also have to do with the fact that it was not a decisive factor for many voters. It was the main reason for the election decision for only 15 percent of left-wing voters. For the vast majority, the party's programme was decisive. In general, it is striking that none of the leading candidates played a major role in this election.

This is unusual in the city-state of Berlin, where once such prominent and popular representatives had competed as Renate Künast for the Greens or Franziska Giffey or Klaus Wowereit for the SPD. In 2006, 69 percent of eligible voters were satisfied with Wowereit, compared to 43 percent with Künast in 2011. With this choice, no one is even remotely close to these values. Eralp leads the way with 27 percent.

The CDU is not opposed to federal politics. The CDU is also suffering greatly from the "Spitzenkandidaten-Problem", which has clearly lost the two-way battle with the left for first place. As with the other candidates, it is also noticeable with Stefan Evers that many Berliners do not know him well enough to be able to assess him. However, he only came on board in July, after Kai Wegner, the only top politician known nationally, had to step down from the race for the post of Governing Mayor - due to his controversial crisis management during the major power outage in January. Evers is quite convincing in his own camp, but hardly convincing outside.

Three-quarters of CDU supporters say he would be a good mayor. Supporters of the Greens or the Left, on the other hand, are hardly in favour of him. Elif Eralp is exactly the opposite. In addition to the left, it is also well received by Green supporters - but not by CDU supporters.

AfD supporters are almost united in the view that neither Eralp nor Evers are suitable for the office. The older the CDU, the more likely the CDU is to be comparatively strong where the left is rather weak: among older voter groups. In the very young voter groups, on the other hand, she only plays a minor role. This extreme contrast is also evident when one asks who should lead the future Senate.

The younger, the sooner a Governing Mayor is desired by the left, the older, the sooner a Governing Mayor is desired by the CDU. The upward outlier is not repeating itself In Berlin, the CDU is also clearly losing out on the attribution of competences, i.e. people's assessment of which party can best solve certain problems. Whether in the economy, transport or education: everywhere is a significant decline compared to 2023. If you look a little further back, however, this puts things into perspective.

Because the 2023 election was more of an outlier for the CDU. The figures for 2026 are again very similar to those received by the CDU in 2021. The fact that Berlin was elected three times within a short period of time is due to the fact that there had been serious breakdowns in the 2021 election and that this had to be repeated. Merz discourages potential CDU voters The decisive factor for why the CDU did not perform better in the general election in Berlin is likely to be found in the federal government.

As with all state elections this year, the great disappointment with the federal government from the CDU/CSU and SPD is also noticeable here. The willingness to give the Federal Government a reminder is as great in Berlin as in the parallel state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. A good half of eligible voters think that the federal government deserves this. And the proportion of those who could imagine voting for the CDU if Friedrich Merz were not Federal Chancellor is the same in both federal states.

Almost 30 percent of those who did not vote for the CDU agree with this statement in the polls. The SPD suffers from homemade problems The SPD also suffers significantly in Berlin from the poor rating of the Federal Government. Because people are not only largely dissatisfied with the work of CDU leader and Chancellor Merz, but also with the SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil. While the SPD under Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has succeeded in decoupling itself from the federal trend, the SPD in Berlin is also facing a number of homemade problems.

Around half of eligible voters say they are too divided to govern Berlin. Similarly, many feel that she has ruled long enough and should go into opposition. In fact, the SPD has been involved in the state government for decades - usually as a leading force, sometimes as a junior partner. It is therefore primarily held responsible by many for the many problems in Berlin and is achieving its worst result to date in Berlin.

Many do not know the lead candidate. In addition, she cannot really convince either in terms of content or with her lead candidate. Steffen Krach struggles with the fact that many do not know him at all. And he is confronted with investigations by the Hanover Public Prosecutor's Office, which concern his previous work as regional president in Hanover. Krach rejects all accusations.

When it comes to attributing skills, the SPD in Berlin has to accept losses everywhere - especially in social security, which plays a major role for SPD supporters. This is matched by the fact that it loses particularly strongly among pensioners and workers. Traditional strength does not help the Greens in Berlin The Greens have been a classic "big city party" for years. Here they can rely on a stable core electorate, which of course also helps them in Berlin.

What is striking, however, is that the Greens have long been a party that was mainly elected by young people. In Berlin, they have now completely handed over this special position to the left. This is probably also the main reason why they cannot keep their 2023 result. Because while the Greens are gaining slightly in older age groups, they are losing significantly among the younger ones - and they are only moving to the left.

The bicycle pulls more than the car In addition to climate policy, there is a second issue in Berlin in which the Greens are attributed more competence than other parties: transport policy. Here, the Greens, who rely on bicycles and public transport, are quite clearly ahead of the CDU, which is still considered a "motorist party". Interesting here are the shifts compared to 2023. While the Greens gained slightly, the CDU lost massively.

The AfD is also clearly gaining ground in Berlin - although not quite to the extent of previous state elections or the parallel election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Compared to the elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, one thing is particularly striking: the AfD can really only score points in Berlin with its core issues of migration and combating crime - which are especially important to its own supporters. It is true that voters attribute more competences to it in other areas than in 2023. But in no subject area is it in first place in Berlin.

What is not new is the finding that the AfD's demand for a rigid migration policy tends to move where there are comparatively few migrants. However, it is once again very clear in the parallel elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a good half of eligible voters generally agree with the anti-immigrant AfD course, while only a good third in Berlin. Expectation of being disappointed by the AfD In Berlin, the AfD is a party that is not elected by many people out of conviction, but out of disappointment with other parties.

This is especially true for new AfD voters. In addition, people who feel disadvantaged vote for the AfD more often than average. Surveys do not verify whether they are actually disadvantaged. However, this is irrelevant for people's voting decisions, where their own feelings count.

What is also interesting about the AfD, however, is that many in Berlin only see it with reservations as a real alternative to the parties of which they are disappointed. After all, a good third of AfD voters say that even the AfD will not be able to keep its promises if it once governs.