Analysis: Why the SPD is behind the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Why did Prime Minister Schwesig succeed in catching up with the slogan "Woman against Blue"? Why was the AfD still ahead? Surveys by infratest dimap provide explanations as well as a detail that must alert the CDU. By Holger Schwesinger In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, too, many voters used the state election to give the federal government a piece of mind.

The AfD took advantage of this, caused massive damage to the CDU - and passed the SPD by quite without a trace. The Social Democrats owe this mainly to Manuela Schwesig, which a survey makes particularly clear: almost half of SPD voters say they would not vote for the SPD without Schwesig. And half of the SPD voters cite the Spitzenkandidat as the most important reason to make the cross with the Social Democrats. Criticism of the pension reform is well received by many. The incumbent Prime Minister had deliberately distanced herself from federal policy and criticised many reform projects.

Above all, the planned abolition of the deduction-free pension after 45 years of contributions. The fact that it is to be abolished is a central component of the pension package, without which, according to the Federal Government, the entire reform could not be implemented. But the people in the country are extremely critical of this. Three quarters of eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania say that the deduction-free pension should be maintained.

And similarly many find it good that Schwesig is always openly opposed to the reforms of the Federal Government. The paradox remains that the German government is criticised precisely because it is not making progress with the reforms. However, a second factor benefits Schwesig's good grades for the previous state government: she has a clear office bonus and is also well received outside her own camp. The work of the red-red state government led by her is positively evaluated by about half of the people - which is a good value compared to other federal states.

61 percent of people in the country are satisfied with Schwesig himself. It is also half of the CDU supporters, and 18 percent of the AfD supporters. Schwesig is thus far ahead of the lead candidates of the other parties. Leif-Erik Holm, whom the AfD has sent into the race as its challenger, gets only 28 percent and would have no chance against Schwesig if the voters could directly decide who becomes Prime Minister.

The AfD attracts many non-voters; in the final spurt of the election campaign, many from the CDU Schwesig had focused primarily on voters who absolutely want to prevent the AfD from becoming the strongest force. "Woman against blue" is the corresponding slogan. In doing so, she managed to almost catch up with the AfD. However, it could not overtake the AfD.

A look at the electoral migration provides clues as to why it has not been enough for the SPD: with the anti-AfD campaign, it has primarily withdrawn voters from the CDU and the left, but has nevertheless lost many to the AfD. This, in turn, has succeeded in mobilising its own supporters to a large extent - and attracting a large number of people who did not vote in 2021. Gains in all groups The AfD is on the rise nationwide and was also able to roughly double its result in the previous state elections this year in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt. It is therefore not surprising that she succeeded in doing so in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

It is the party that benefits most from the general dissatisfaction and disappointment with the federal government. It has gained significantly among workers as well as employees, the self-employed or pensioners - and in all age groups. Despite the gains, it is not at the forefront of all these population groups. As before, the AfD is much more strongly elected by men than by women.

The AfD is also by far the strongest force among voters, while the SPD is clearly ahead among female voters. As in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD became by far the strongest force two weeks ago, the SPD is increasingly attributed competences by voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to actually solve problems. But there is a significant difference: While the AfD was in first place in Saxony-Anhalt on almost all issues, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the SPD is almost everywhere ahead of the AfD. And when it comes to the "meta-question" of who can best solve the most important tasks in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, 42 percent of voters say: the SPD.

The AfD is clearly behind at 25 percent. However, the AfD has managed to be seen as a party of the centre by a comparatively large number of people in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Here, too, the comparison with Saxony-Anhalt, which has many similarities to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in terms of its population structure, is interesting. In both countries, Infratest dimap asked people whether they agree with this statement: "There are individual right-wing politicians in the AfD, but overall the party is more in the middle." Overall, approval is higher in Saxony-Anhalt, which is due to the significantly larger number of AfD supporters there.

But when looking at the supporters of other parties, it is striking: in Saxony-Anhalt, only 6 percent of left-wing and SPD voters classify the AfD as a "centre", while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania it is 10 and 14 percent, respectively. In its election programme, the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is actually much more moderate than in Saxony-Anhalt, where the state association is regarded by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a confirmed right-wing extremist. The expectation of also being disappointed by the AfD For the success of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, the lead candidate had also played an essential role - a novelty for the AfD.

This was also different in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In this case, however, many eligible voters may not have been clear as to who is actually the leading figure. In fact, the party competed with a "top duo": Leif-Erik Holm as "prime minister candidate" and Enrico Schult as "top candidate". Holm is considered very moderate within the AfD and also appeared in the election campaign - but recently more as a lone fighter and not in a duo with Schult.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, too, the AfD owes a considerable part of its electoral victory to disappointment with other parties - especially the frustration with the federal government. Interestingly, however, a not inconsiderable number of AfD voters are already praising the fact that they could also be disappointed by the AfD. After all, a quarter of them say: Even the AfD will not be able to keep its promises if it governs. Lowest value for CDU in economic competence Breaking promises is currently hurting the CDU in particular.

89 percent of eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania say that the party promised a lot before the federal election, but kept little of it. This is not really new, because even in other state elections this year, a clear majority of eligible voters had always seen it this way. In the current election, another value in the polls is likely to be particularly frightening for the CDU: its loss of competence in the field of economics. Only 13 percent believe she has the best solutions here - and that's on a topic that the CDU almost sees as its core brand.

The economic competence of the CDU has never been so poorly assessed anywhere in Germany as it is now in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. State politics, federal politics - and the Chancellor It is fitting that around 80 percent of people now say that they no longer know what the CDU actually stands for. And even of those who still vote for the CDU, 40 percent say so. The fact that the CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is achieving a historically poor election result and is flying out of a state parliament for the first time in its history is likely to have something to do with the state CDU, which has not succeeded in making its mark.

In addition, she had a top candidate in Daniel Peters, whom most people in the country do not even really know. However, the main reason is probably to be found at the federal level. Because the dissatisfaction with the federal government from the CDU/CSU and SPD is extremely high. And as with the Saxony-Anhalt election two weeks ago, it turns out that mainly the CDU is held responsible - and here again the Federal Chancellor is strongly responsible.

Without Merz, the CDU would be an option for many. The fact that the frustration is mainly attached to the person Friedrich Merz is seen differently. 19 percent consider the criticism of Merz to be exaggerated, while among CDU supporters it is 57 percent. On the other hand, 58 percent say they are especially disappointed with Merz. And in this election, infratest dimap also asked whether one could imagine voting for the CDU if Friedrich Merz were not Chancellor.

21 percent of AfD voters say: yes, I could. In the case of SPD voters, it is even 40 percent. Linke suffers from the "big city party"image. The Left Party was also once regarded in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as the party that is most likely to care about the "little people" and East German interests. In 2011, this image earned it 18.4 percent of the vote.

But this image is crumbling. A good 40 percent of eligible voters now say that the left has lost sight of the "concerns of ordinary people". And when it comes to the question of who best takes care of social justice, it has always been in the shadow of the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - and is now increasingly facing competition from the AfD. The Left wins with young people, but there are few of them. And more than a third of those entitled to vote say that the Left only has the interests of the people in big cities in mind.

This probably has a lot to do with the fact that parts of the party, which are very present in (social) media, are currently mainly discussing Gaza, queer issues or the expropriation of housing corporations. In large cities, there are many voters who welcome this - as the outcome of the election in Berlin shows. And they are usually rather young. But in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern there is only one big city with Rostock.

And the federal state is one with the oldest population - and the left is no longer attracted to it. For voters under 35, the left has gained compared to 2021, but for middle and older age groups it has lost. All in all, this is not enough to hold the election result of 2021. The Greens have had a core issue with climate and environmental protection for many years, in which no other party can match them from the point of view of the majority of voters.

Their problem in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: In other areas, hardly any competencies are attributed to them - and climate played no role at all in this election. This may come as a surprise, because the consequences of climate change were clearly felt this summer, and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, more than half of those entitled to vote say that climate change scares them. However, it was only a crucial issue for four percent of eligible voters - which is in a similar range to the election result of the Greens.

And BSW and FDP? The latter has also flown out of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with barely measurable values. This is further proof that her behaviour in the traffic light coalition in the federal government has probably permanently put her on the sidelines. The BSW competed for the first time in a state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and probably owes its result mainly to its Russia-friendly positioning.

This concerns foreign policy and has nothing to do with a state election. Nevertheless, it attracts voters to a certain extent - but it is just not enough to enter the state parliament.